The uncertainty is clear because not every economic forecast predicts inflation of 2.3%.
According to forecasts collected in the June report, the European Commission expects inflation in Hungary to reach 3.1% in 2027, while the IMF forecasts 3.5% and the 3.7%.
This means there are significant differences between the current projections.
For example, if a 3.5% pension increase were approved, a monthly pension of 250,000 would rise to 258,750 . With a 4% increase, the same pension would reach 260,000 per month.
The Final Figure Has Not Yet Been Confirmed
Hungary's 2027 budget has not yet been adopted.
The Hungarian Parliament's autumn 2026 legislative programme includes the preparation of the country's central budget for 2027. The official inflation assumption that is crucial for the pension increase may therefore become known later.
This is important because the inflation figure included in the budget will ultimately determine the January increase, rather than the MNB's current forecast alone.
What Happens If Prices Rise More Than Expected?
The system also includes rules for situations in which inflation turns out to be higher than the forecast used for the January increase.
If expected inflation during the year exceeds the rate used in January by at least one percentage point, a supplementary pension increase must be implemented retroactively in November. If the difference is smaller, the outstanding amount must be paid as a lump sum.
This means that inflation throughout the year can also affect pensioners' income.
